La Nina Risk Might Disrupt Global Weather Patterns
Despite La Niña's characteristic short-term cooling impact on planetary average temperatures, numerous areas across the globe are projected to experience above-normal heat, the agency warned in its latest advisory.
The climate pattern emerges from extensive cooling across ocean surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific region, accompanied by dramatic alterations in tropical atmospheric circulation—including transformed wind patterns, pressure systems, and precipitation distribution.
Data from the WMO's Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction revealed marginal La Niña conditions existing as of mid-November, derived from oceanic and atmospheric measurements.
Between December 2025 and February 2026, the likelihood of achieving complete La Niña threshold criteria reaches 55%, according to the update. Subsequently, ENSO-neutral (El Niño-Southern Oscillation-neutral) conditions show an escalating 65% to 75% probability of returning during the January–March and February–April 2026 timeframes. The formation of an El Niño remains highly unlikely, the organization stated.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the critical nature of these forecasts: "Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Nina are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, energy, health and transport. They are also a key component of WMO's contribution to support humanitarian operations. This climate intelligence helps us to avert millions of dollars in economic losses and to save countless lives."
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services nationwide will maintain vigilant observation of evolving conditions to assist policymakers, the WMO confirmed.
These naturally occurring climate phenomena develop within the context of anthropogenic climate change, which propels sustained planetary warming and amplifies the severity of extreme weather occurrences.
December through February projections indicate elevated temperatures spanning most Northern Hemisphere regions and extensive Southern Hemisphere territories, while precipitation distributions mirror patterns characteristic of a weak La Niña event.
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